Does putting carry over less than ball striking? A study of 80,138 PGA Tour rounds
Across 80,138 PGA Tour rounds from 2021 to 2026, putting carries over the least of any strokes gained category from one 24-round stretch to the next: a correlation of 0.32, against 0.59 off the tee and 0.54 for ball striking. Golfers striking it well (+0.50 or better) while putting badly (-0.50 or worse) saw their putting improve over the next 24 rounds in 84% of 96 cases.
On this page
How much each category carries over
| Category | Correlation with the next 24 rounds |
|---|---|
| Off the tee | 0.59 |
| Ball striking (off the tee + approach) | 0.54 |
| Tee to green | 0.50 |
| Total | 0.42 |
| Approach | 0.39 |
| Around the green | 0.39 |
| Putting | 0.32 |
The correlation between a golfer’s average over 24 PGA Tour rounds and over their next 24, in StatsNext’s stored rounds since 2021. Off-the-tee play carries over the most and putting the least, so a hot or cold putting stretch says less about the next stretch than the same gap in ball striking. Past data, not a forecast.
Method and sample
- Rounds: the 80,138 PGA Tour rounds StatsNext stores from January 7, 2021 to October 1, 2026 with every strokes gained category published for the round. Majors publish no round strokes gained, so they are not included.
- Measure: a golfer’s average in each category over a stretch of 24 measured rounds, compared with the same golfer’s average over their next 24 rounds; the table gives the correlation between the two.
- Ball striking is off the tee plus approach from the published round values (the PGA Tour publishes no ball-striking statistic); tee to green adds around the green.
- The 84% figure: the 96 cases where a golfer’s ball striking averaged +0.50 or better over a 24-round stretch while putting averaged -0.50 or worse; in 84% of them, putting was better over the next 24 rounds.
Limitations
- Strokes gained compares each shot with the field in the same round, so course difficulty and conditions are accounted for; the strength of the field is not.
- A correlation says how closely one stretch’s average resembles the next across golfers. It describes past rounds, not a forecast for any golfer.
- This is a one-time run on rounds through October 1, 2026. Unlike the leader tables, these figures are not refreshed daily.
- Only the published per-round strokes gained values are used; there is no shot-level data.
This page shows results and statistics only. It contains no sportsbook prices or betting lines. Current markets and StatsNext research are in the app.
How to cite
StatsNext, “Does putting carry over less than ball striking? A study of 80,138 PGA Tour rounds”, https://statsnext.com/pga/strokes-gained-stability (rounds January 7, 2021 to October 1, 2026; published October 13, 2026).