StatsNext

Player prop research across sports

Player prop research starts with one question at the exact line you are considering: how often has this player finished over it, and under it, in games he actually played? StatsNext grades each past game against the current line for every market it has a stored stat for, in the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college football, MLB, NHL and the major soccer leagues, then adds the matchup, availability and price context on the same screen. Markets without a stored stat behind them are shown with their prices and labelled, never graded with a substitute number.

Which markets are graded, by sport

A prop is graded when StatsNext stores the box-score stat that settles it for the player’s past games. Everything else is a current market only: real prices, books and movement, but no hit rate.

  • NBA: points, rebounds, assists, 3-pointers made, steals, blocks, the four combinations (points + rebounds + assists, points + rebounds, points + assists, rebounds + assists), double-double and triple-double.
  • WNBA: the same, except steals and blocks, which sportsbooks do not post for the WNBA.
  • NFL: passing, rushing, receiving, kicking and defensive interception markets. The NFL player prop guide covers them in detail.
  • College football: passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and anytime touchdown, the subset sportsbooks post.
  • MLB batters: hits, singles, doubles, triples, home runs, extra-base hits, total bases, runs, RBIs, stolen bases, walks, strikeouts and combinations such as hits + runs + RBIs.
  • MLB pitchers: strikeouts, outs recorded, earned runs, hits allowed, walks allowed, hits + walks + earned runs allowed, and to record a win.
  • NHL: goals, assists, points, shots on goal and goalie saves.
  • Soccer (Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, MLS and Champions League): goals, assists, goal or assist, shots and shots on target.

Not graded anywhere: first scorer markets (first touchdown, first goal, first home run), longest pass, and NFL quarter and half markets, because the order of scoring and quarter-level football stats are not available. College basketball has no player props. Tennis, golf and MMA have no player props in StatsNext: tennis research shows the match winner market, MMA the fight winner market, and golf its tournament board (outright, top finishes, cut, matchups and round markets), next to each sport’s own statistics.

Hit rates at the line, and the windows behind them

A hit rate is a count, not a projection: of the graded games in a window, how many finished over the line, how many under, and how many exactly on it. StatsNext always grades against the line on screen, not the line each past game had, so moving the line re-grades every window at once.

  • Windows: the last 3, 5, 10 and 20 games played, and the season. The season window is the most recent season the player has games in, which early in a new season can still be last season; the screen labels which games are included.
  • Filters: all games, home games or road games, plus results against this opponent.
  • Pushes: a result exactly on a whole-number line counts for neither side and is shown separately.
  • Yes-only markets (a home run, a double-double, anytime touchdown): the rate reads “Hit in 3 of last 10”, because there is no under side.

Read the sample before the percentage. “Over in 4 of last 5” is a smaller sample than “Over in 14 of last 20”, and windows overlap: the last 5 games are also inside the last 10, 20 and the season, so agreement between windows is partly the same games counted again.

What counts as a game, and what counts as a zero

The most common way a hit rate goes wrong is by mixing up “did not play” with “played and recorded nothing”. StatsNext applies one rule everywhere props are graded:

  • Basketball: a row with zero minutes is a DNP (did not play) and is left out, never counted as 0 points.
  • Hockey: a scratched skater is left out, and so is a dressed backup goalie who never entered the game. His box-score row shows 0 saves and no ice time; counting it would add a 0-save game to every goalie’s saves history.
  • Football (verified zeros): a running back with no catches has no receiving line in the box score. When a player recorded something else in the game, an absent passing, rushing or receiving line counts as 0. A player who did not play has no line and is never in the sample. College football targets are not published, so they are never zero-filled or estimated.
  • Missing is not zero: a stat a game does not carry is skipped for that game, not filled in.

Quarter and period markets

A first-quarter points line cannot be graded with full-game points. StatsNext grades period markets only from verified player stats per quarter (NBA) or per period (NHL). That covers NBA first-quarter points, rebounds and assists and NHL period goals, points, shots on goal and saves. A game without verified period stats is skipped for that market, and the full-game line is never used in its place.

NBA first-three-minutes markets, NFL quarter and half markets and MLB first-five-innings home runs stay current markets only: they are shown with prices but not graded.

Matchup, availability and price on the same screen

Player Prop Research puts the rest of the research around the hit rates:

  • Opponent: what this defense has allowed in the market’s stat, with a league rank (see opponent weakness research).
  • MLB direct matchups: a batter’s history against today’s listed starting pitcher, or a starting pitcher against today’s posted batting order, with the plate appearances behind it. Pitchers are never inferred, and pitch-level evidence (pitch mix, whiff and chase rates, contact quality) appears where available.
  • Soccer shot context: the player’s shots and expected goals (xG) over matches with shot data, and the opponent’s xG allowed per match against the league average.
  • Availability and role: injury reports, teammate with-and-without comparisons and lineup roles (see injury and lineup research).
  • Price: every tracked sportsbook’s line and price, the best price for the identical line and side, and line movement (see line movement research).

The Evidence section then lists what supports the selection and what argues against it, and states when the evidence is mixed or too thin. It never produces a score or a pick.

Limits to know

  • Props are pre-game markets and leave the board when the game starts.
  • StatsNext Intelligence (the model estimate) covers NBA, WNBA, NFL, college football, MLB and NHL full-game markets only; soccer, tennis, golf and MMA are not modelled. Its estimates are unvalidated and have not shown an advantage over sportsbook prices.
  • Hit rates come from recent stored game logs, not full career histories.
  • A hit rate describes past games. Roles, opponents and lines change, and the past does not settle tonight’s result.

StatsNext is a research platform, not a sportsbook; it does not accept wagers or guarantee results (Research Disclaimer, Responsible Gambling).

Free public research pages

Player and team statistics for every sport StatsNext covers are also published on the website: These pages show statistics and results only, with no sportsbook prices.

The research index lists every sport.

What is free

Every prop on the Props board, with sportsbook prices and each player’s recent results at the line, is free to browse. Full Research for a player, team or game opens 0 times in total as a guest, 5 new subjects a day with a free account, and without limit with StatsNext Pro (US$19.99 a month or US$179.99 a year). See Pricing.

Continue in StatsNext

Props

Every prop on the slate, by league, with prices and recent results at the line.

Stats Explorer

League-wide player and team tables; rows with a line today open that prop.

Trends

Props matching explicit historical patterns, with the sample behind each.

Explore

Every research tool in one place.

Free research pages for this topic

Built from StatsNext’s stored box scores and refreshed every morning:

Calculators for the math in this guide: