StatsNext Research and Model Disclaimer

What StatsNext Intelligence shows

StatsNext Intelligence shows statistical estimates: Fair Line, Fair Probability, Market No-Vig Probability, StatsNext Edge, Fair Price, Estimated EV and Confidence, with the model explanations, historical trends, line movement and sportsbook disagreement behind them.

These are estimates produced by statistical models from historical and current data. Models can be wrong, sometimes by a lot. They are not:

• guarantees, promises of profit or guaranteed winners;
• certainty about any future sporting outcome;
• personalized financial or betting advice;
• recommendations from or of any sportsbook.

Estimated EV

Estimated EV is a mathematical estimate calculated from StatsNext’s modeled probability for an outcome and the sportsbook price shown next to it. If the model probability is off, or the price changes, the estimate changes too.

• It does not mean you will earn that return.
• It does not mean a wager will be profitable.
• Results over many wagers will not exactly match the estimate, and can differ from it a great deal.

Confidence

HIGH, MODERATE and LOW describe how much the data and model behind an estimate can be relied on, based on things like sample size, data completeness and how the model has tested on past games.

• HIGH confidence does not mean an outcome is certain, a wager will win or a profit is guaranteed.
• LOW confidence does not mean an outcome will fail.
• Confidence and StatsNext Edge are separate: Edge is the gap between the model and the market; Confidence is about the reliability of the estimate.

Sports and market information changes

Injuries, lineups, weather, player availability, game status, and sportsbook lines, prices, odds and markets can change after StatsNext shows them, and third-party data can be delayed or incomplete. Check the current line and price directly with the sportsbook before making any wagering decision.

Sportsbook names and prices are shown as information about third-party services. StatsNext is not affiliated with or endorsed by any sportsbook, and showing a sportsbook is not a recommendation to use it.

Historical research

Historical trends such as last 5, last 10 and last 20 games, season figures, head-to-head results, with and without a teammate, hit rates and past line movement describe what happened. They do not guarantee future results. Research screens show the sample behind each figure; small samples can mislead.

Injury Impact

• With and without comparisons show differences observed in past games. A difference does not establish that the absence caused it.
• A game without a player counts every game the player did not play, for any reason. It does not prove the player was injured.
• Current injury designations come from third-party reports and can be incomplete or change.

Market Intelligence

Line Moves, Price Moves, rapid moves over recent windows, Market Disagreement between sportsbooks, and consensus figures report observed market behavior from sportsbook prices StatsNext has recorded. First Tracked is the first price StatsNext recorded, not the opening line; Current is the sportsbook’s latest price; Last Pregame is its last price before the start.

StatsNext reports what moved and where sportsbooks differ, not why. A move or a disagreement is not, by itself, evidence that any wager is a good one.

Terms of Use

The StatsNext Terms of Use set out the full conditions for using StatsNext, including its research purpose, StatsNext Intelligence and third-party sportsbook information. The Privacy Policy explains how StatsNext handles your information.