Opponent weakness and defense versus position research

Opponent weakness research asks what a defense has allowed in one specific category (points to guards, receptions to tight ends, hits to batters, shots on goal to skaters) and how that compares with the rest of the league. StatsNext computes it from box scores of games already played, ranks the teams, and lists a defense as a weakness when it is among those that allow the most. It shows values, ranks and league averages, never a score or a pick.

How an allowance is computed

For every game, StatsNext adds up what the opposing players recorded against the defense in the category: all opposing players for a team total, or only the players at one listed position for a role split. The per-game average of those totals is the defense’s allowance.

Complete box scores only: a game counts only when the opponent’s box score is complete.
Missing is not zero: a box score that lacks a stat for every player is missing data for that category, not a zero.
Season and recent: the season value is the regular-season average (preseason and postseason excluded). The recent value is the last 10 games (last 3 in football), postseason included, shown beside the season value and never replacing it.
Trades: a player’s production counts for the team he played for in that game.

Categories by sport

NBA and WNBA: points, rebounds, assists and 3-pointers allowed; points to guards, forwards and centers; rebounds to centers and forwards; assists and 3-pointers to guards; steals and blocks by opposing players (the team’s own ball security).
College basketball: the same without center splits, because college rosters list few centers. Only Division I defenses are ranked.
NFL and college football: quarterback passing yards, passing touchdowns, attempts and completions; rushing yards and attempts (team, and rushing yards to running backs); receiving yards and receptions (team, and to wide receivers, tight ends and running backs); targets to wide receivers, shown as context only.
MLB: what opposing batters recorded against the pitching staff: hits, total bases, home runs, walks, strikeouts, runs, RBIs and stolen bases.
NHL: shots on goal, goals, assists and points by opposing skaters, and saves by opposing goalies (the team’s own shot volume as the goalie sees it).

Roles come from each player’s listed position. A hybrid position such as an NBA “G-F” counts toward team totals but never a role split. Soccer, tennis, golf and MMA are not forced into this structure. Pace is not offered as a category.

Ranks, samples and what “weakness” means

Rank 1 allows the least. Ties share a rank.
Small samples: a team with too few games shows its value without a rank.
Which season: early in a season, ranks can come from the previous season, labelled as such.
Weakness: a season rank among the teams that allow the most.

Why the sample matters (arithmetic illustration, not StatsNext data)

A defense that allowed 9, 4 and 11 receptions to tight ends averages 8.0 per game; one quiet week would change its average by more than a full reception. The same three-game average in October and a ten-game average in December are not equally solid, and StatsNext shows the number of games next to every value.

MLB listed starters and NFL defense versus position

MLB starters. A staff average mixes starters and relievers, so StatsNext also ranks each starting pitcher’s own allowance per start (hits, walks, strikeouts and earned runs) among starters. A card shows the defense’s listed starter for its next game, never an inferred one. Total bases, home runs and stolen bases have no starter figure, because pitcher box scores do not record them.

NFL and college football defense versus position. Player Prop Research and Matchup Research show what each defense allowed to quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends in the prop’s stat, this season and over the last 3, 5 and 10 games, home and away, with a league rank, using only games before the one being researched. Each game also lists the leading player at the position (most attempts, carries or targets), graded against the line you are looking at.

From a defense to the players facing it

Explore > Opponent Weakness lists, for each weak defense, the opposing players with a priced prop in the matching market for its next game, shown with the same card as the Props board: selection, best price and book, hit rate and context. Players listed out, doubtful, on the injured list or reserve, or suspended are excluded, as are players with too few recent games and, in MLB, batters outside a posted batting order. The card counts how many were excluded.

The side shown is the one the player’s last 10 games favour, never one implied by the defense’s rank. A defense that allows a lot is a fact about past games; it does not say which side of tonight’s line wins.

Limits to know

Allowances describe opponents faced, not just defensive quality: a schedule of strong offenses inflates what a defense allows.
Early-season samples are small, and football samples stay small all season.
NFL props usually post shortly before game day, so early in the week a weak defense may show no priced market yet.
Rank and allowance are not adjusted for pace, injuries or game script.

StatsNext is a research platform, not a sportsbook; it does not accept wagers or guarantee results (Research Disclaimer, Responsible Gambling).

Free public research pages

Team and player statistics for the leagues covered here are published on the website: These pages show statistics and results only, with no sportsbook prices.

The research index lists every sport.

What is free

Browsing Opponent Weakness (Today, Upcoming and League-wide rankings, team details and the player cards) is free and never spends a research open. Full Research for a player, team or game opens 0 times in total as a guest, 5 new subjects a day with a free account, and without limit with StatsNext Pro (US$19.99 a month or US$179.99 a year). See Pricing.

Free research pages for this topic

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