NFL player prop research
To research an NFL player prop, answer four questions at the exact line you are considering: how often the player has cleared it, whether the player’s opportunity (targets, carries, pass attempts) is rising or falling, what this defense has allowed to the position, and how sportsbooks have priced and moved the market. StatsNext Player Prop Research puts each answer on one screen and re-grades everything when you change the line.
NFL markets StatsNext grades
A market is graded when StatsNext has the box-score stat behind it for the player’s past games. For the NFL that is:
- Passing yards, passing touchdowns, completions, pass attempts and interceptions thrown
- Rushing yards, rush attempts and longest rush
- Receptions, receiving yards and longest reception
- Rushing + receiving yards and anytime touchdown
- Field goals made and kicking points
- Defensive interceptions (cornerbacks, safeties and linebackers, kept separate from a quarterback’s interceptions thrown)
Quarter and half markets (1Q receptions, 1H rushing yards and the like), first touchdown and longest pass are shown with their sportsbook prices but are not graded: StatsNext has no verified quarter-by-quarter NFL stats, and it never uses full-game numbers in place of a quarter or half.
Results against the line
The first question is the simplest: at this line, how often did the player go over, and how often under? StatsNext grades every past game against the line you are looking at, not against the line that game had.
- Windows: last 3, last 5, last 10, last 20 and this season
- Filters: all games, home games or road games
- Pushes (a result exactly on a whole-number line) count for neither side and are shown separately
- A game-by-game chart and game log, with the full box-score line for each game
- Results against this opponent in past meetings
Change the line and every number re-grades. A receiver who went over 4.5 receptions in 8 of the last 10 games may have gone over 5.5 in only 4 of them, and the screen shows both when you move the line.
Games without a catch still count
When a player played but the box score lists no receiving line, StatsNext counts that game as zero receptions and zero receiving yards; it is not skipped. A player’s game is only left out when the player did not play. Skipping zero-catch games would make a low-volume receiver’s averages and over rates look better than they were.
Opportunity: targets, carries and pass attempts
Production follows opportunity. A receiver’s receptions depend on targets; a running back’s yards depend on carries; a quarterback’s yards depend on attempts. StatsNext shows the opportunity stats that belong to the market you are researching, over the last 3, last 5, last 10 and the season:
- Receiving: targets, target share, catch rate and yards per target
- Rushing: carries and yards per carry
- Passing: pass attempts, completion percentage and yards per attempt
Rates are summed over the window (total catches divided by total targets), not averages of game percentages. Target share is the player’s targets divided by his team’s targets. NFL advanced passing, rushing and receiving stats appear alongside where available.
College football box scores do not publish targets, so NCAAF receiving research shows receptions and yards without target-based metrics. StatsNext never estimates a missing target count.
Defense versus position
A defense that is strong overall can still give up a lot to tight ends, and the reverse. StatsNext ranks what each defense has allowed to quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends in the stat the prop is about, using only games played before the game you are researching.
- Allowed per game this season, over the last 3, 5 and 10 games, and at home and on the road
- League rank (1 allows the fewest)
- The leading player at that position in each of those games, graded against your line
Josh Allen passing yards Over 244.5: over in 7 of the last 10 games. The Rams had allowed quarterbacks 153.8 passing yards per game, the fewest of 32 teams (league average 234.7). StatsNext showed both facts and read the evidence as mixed: recent results supported the over, the matchup argued against it.
Availability, role and teammates
- NFL injury designations and weekly practice participation
- Depth chart changes during the week
- With and without: the player’s results in games a teammate missed and games the teammate played, with the number of games behind each
- Injury Impact: how a teammate’s absence went with changes in the player’s opportunity and production, with a confidence label
These comparisons describe past games. A difference is an association, not proof that an absence caused it.
Price, movement and the StatsNext estimate
The same prop research screen shows every sportsbook’s line and price, the best available price, alternate lines where they are posted, and how the line moved. The odds comparison guide explains how those prices compare and what implied probability means.
For markets StatsNext models, StatsNext Intelligence adds a model-implied fair line and probability, and the Evidence Engine sums up what supports and argues against the selection and whether the price looks favorable relative to the estimate. The model has not demonstrated an advantage over sportsbook prices; its numbers are unvalidated estimates.
Limits to know
- Player props are pre-game markets; StatsNext shows them until kickoff.
- Early in a season the current-season sample is small. Windows such as the last 10 reach back into last season, and the screen says which games are included.
- Quarter and half markets are not graded (see above).
- Line history starts when StatsNext first recorded a market unless a verified sportsbook opening line exists.
StatsNext is a research platform, not a sportsbook; it does not accept wagers or guarantee results (Research Disclaimer, Responsible Gambling).
What is free
Every NFL prop on the Props board, with sportsbook prices and each player’s recent results at the line, is free to browse. Full Research for a player, team or game opens 0 times in total as a guest, 5 new subjects a day with a free account, and without limit with StatsNext Pro (US$19.99 a month or US$179.99 a year). See Pricing.
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Free research pages for this topic
Built from StatsNext’s stored box scores and refreshed every morning:
Public NFL research pages
Box-score statistics and results from StatsNext’s records, free to read: