StatsNext

Sports betting research glossary

This glossary defines the terms StatsNext uses in its research screens. Where a term applies only to some sports, the sport is named in brackets. Where a figure is shown as published (such as expected goals or strokes gained), the definition says so.

Lines, prices and probability

Line
The number a prop or total is set at, such as 24.5 points. Over wins above it, Under below it.
Over / Under
The two sides of a line. On a whole-number line, a result exactly on it is a push.
Push
A result exactly on the line. StatsNext counts it for neither side and shows it separately.
Yes-only market
A proposition priced only as yes, such as anytime touchdown, a home run or a double-double. Its hit rate reads “Hit in N of last 10”.
Alternate line
A sportsbook’s extra lines on the same market at different numbers and prices. Shown where posted; not used in Market Movers.
American odds
Prices such as −110 or +150: a negative price is the stake to win 100, a positive price the win on a 100 stake.
Best price
The best price among sportsbooks posting the identical line and side.
Implied probability
The probability a price implies, margin included. Negative odds: odds ÷ (odds + 100), using the number without its sign. Positive odds: 100 ÷ (odds + 100).
Vig (margin)
The amount by which a sportsbook’s two implied probabilities add up to more than 100%. At −110 on both sides, each implies 52.4%, a 4.8-point margin in total.
No-vig probability
One sportsbook’s two sides with the margin removed: each side’s implied probability divided by the sum of both. Never mixes books.
Consensus line
On the Props board, the line most sportsbooks are offering. In Market Intelligence, the median line offered, always a line some book actually offers.
Spread, run line, puck line, handicap
The points a team gives or gets; StatsNext uses each sport’s name: run line (MLB), puck line (NHL), handicap (soccer).
StatsNext Fair Line
The model’s line where Over and Under are equally likely (the median of its distribution), for modelled full-game props in the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college football, MLB and NHL. An unvalidated estimate.
Model-Implied Fair Price
The American price at which a bet breaks even if the model probability were right.
Model-Implied EV (Unvalidated)
Expected profit per unit staked at a real price if the model probability were right. StatsNext’s model has not demonstrated an advantage over sportsbook prices.

Hit rates, samples and confidence

Hit rate
Of the graded games in a window, how many finished over the line (or hit, for yes-only markets), graded against the line on screen.
L3, L5, L10, L20
The player’s last 3, 5, 10 or 20 games played, most recent first.
Season window
Games in the most recent season the player has games in. Trends counts a season pattern only when that is the league’s current season.
Sample size
The number of games behind a figure. StatsNext shows it next to every hit rate, split and comparison.
Wilson lower bound
The low end of the 95% Wilson score interval for a rate: a standard way to say how low a rate could plausibly be given its sample, so that 17 of 20 reads as stronger than 2 of 2.
Verified zero (football)
A 0 StatsNext can confirm: when a player recorded something in a game but has no passing, rushing or receiving line, that line is 0 (NFL and college football). A defender’s missing interception is a verified 0 when his line has a defensive stat (NFL).
DNP (did not play)
A game the player did not play: a basketball row with zero minutes, a scratched skater, or a dressed backup goalie with no ice time. Left out of hit rates, never counted as 0. In NFL practice reports, DNP means “did not participate” in practice.
Current market only
A market shown with real prices and movement but not graded, because StatsNext has no stat that settles it (first scorer, longest pass, most period markets).
Verified period line
A player’s verified stats for one quarter (NBA) or period (NHL). The only basis for grading period markets.
Meaningful change
In Injury Impact and Lineup Impact, a difference clearly larger than ordinary game-to-game variation.
Confidence (High, Moderate, Low)
A label on with-and-without and role comparisons from the sample and its caveats. Never a number.
With and without
A player’s or team’s per-game numbers in games a teammate played compared with games he missed. An association, not a cause.

Market movement

Tracked line
A sportsbook line or price StatsNext recorded itself, since October 3, 2026.
Opening line
A sportsbook’s verified opening line. Shown only when verified; otherwise StatsNext says First Tracked.
First Tracked
The first line and price StatsNext recorded for a book. Never presented as the opening.
Last Pregame
A book’s last quote before the start.
Closing line
For ATS and over/under records, the most common last pre-game line across tracked books (tracked since October 3, 2026; earlier games have none).
Line movement
The change from the starting quote (Opening or First Tracked) or the start of a window to the current quote, per book and as a median of books.
Market mover
A market whose line or price moved noticeably in the last 60 minutes, the last 3 hours or since the first quote.
Book disagreement
Current sportsbooks on noticeably different main lines, or with different probabilities on the shared line.
ATS (against the spread)
A team’s record against each game’s own closing spread.
Over/under record
A team’s games graded against each game’s own closing total.
Straight up (SU)
Wins and losses, with no line.

Basketball and football terms

Usage rate (NBA, WNBA)
The share of team possessions a player used while on the court, as published in the advanced box score.
Pace (NBA, WNBA)
Possessions per 48 minutes in the NBA as published; for the WNBA, possessions per 40 minutes, because WNBA games are 40 minutes long.
Offensive, defensive and net rating (NBA, WNBA)
Points scored, points allowed, and the difference, per 100 possessions, as published. Player values are on-court.
True shooting (TS%) (NBA, WNBA)
Scoring efficiency that accounts for 3-pointers and free throws, as published per game.
Opportunity
The volume behind production: minutes, shot attempts, targets, carries, pass attempts, ice time, innings or pitches, depending on the market.
Target share (NFL)
A receiver’s targets divided by the team’s total targets, summed over the window. College football publishes no targets.
Catch rate, yards per target (NFL)
Total receptions, or total receiving yards, divided by total targets over the window.
Defense versus position (NFL, college football)
What a defense allowed per game to quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers or tight ends in one stat, with a league rank where 1 allows the fewest.
Opponent weakness
A defense ranked among those that allow the most in a category.
Practice participation (NFL)
Did not participate, limited or full, per practice day, from the 2026 season.

Baseball, hockey, soccer and golf terms

ERA (MLB)
Earned runs × 9 ÷ innings pitched, summed over the window (totals over totals).
WHIP (MLB)
(Hits allowed + walks allowed) ÷ innings pitched, summed over the window.
BvP (MLB)
A batter’s history against today’s listed starting pitcher, with the plate appearances behind it.
Whiff rate, chase rate (MLB)
Whiffs ÷ swings; swings at pitches outside the zone ÷ pitches outside the zone. Available from May 7, 2026.
xBA (MLB)
Expected batting average on balls in play, as published per pitch, compared with actual results.
W-L-OTL (NHL)
Wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses, kept separate.
Time on ice (TOI) (NHL)
Minutes a player was on the ice per game.
Save percentage (SV%) (NHL)
Saves ÷ (saves + goals against), totals over totals.
Goals-against average (GAA) (NHL)
Goals against × 60 ÷ minutes in net.
Expected goals (xG) (soccer)
The chance a shot becomes a goal, as published for each shot, summed per player or team. Own goals carry none.
Expected assists (xA) (soccer)
The expected goals of the shots a player’s passes set up, as published.
Per 90 (soccer)
A player’s total divided by minutes played, times 90.
Strokes gained (PGA Tour)
Shots gained or lost against the field, total and by part of the game (off the tee, approach, around the green, putting), as published and shown per round, where available.
Cut line (PGA Tour)
The 36-hole score a golfer needed to keep playing: the highest 36-hole score among golfers who made the cut. Shown only when the scores confirm it.

Free public research pages

Many of these statistics appear on the public research pages for each sport: These pages show statistics and results only, with no sportsbook prices.

The research index lists every sport.

What is free

Props, Trends, Stats Explorer, Market Movers and Book Disagreement are free to browse. Full Research for a player, team or game opens 0 times in total as a guest, 5 new subjects a day with a free account, and without limit with StatsNext Pro (US$19.99 a month or US$179.99 a year). See Pricing.

StatsNext is a research platform, not a sportsbook; it does not accept wagers or guarantee results (Research Disclaimer, Responsible Gambling).

Continue in StatsNext

Stats Explorer

League-wide tables for every stat defined here.

Props

Hit rates at the line for every graded market.

Market Movers

Openings, First Tracked lines and the biggest moves.

Explore

Every research tool in one place.

Free research pages for this topic

Calculators for the math in this guide: