Dalton Kincaid receptions: hit rates and game log
Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills TE) has averaged 2.8 receptions per game over the last 10 regular-season games and 3.2 in 2026 (5 games), reaching 4+ in 3 of the last 10. Median over the last 17: 3.
How often each threshold was reached
| Threshold | Last 5 | Last 10 | Last 20 | 2026 season (5) | 2025 season (12) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ receptions | 5/5 (100%) | 9/10 (90%) | 16/17 (94%) | 5/5 (100%) | 11/12 (92%) |
| 2+ receptions | 3/5 (60%) | 7/10 (70%) | 12/17 (71%) | 3/5 (60%) | 9/12 (75%) |
| 3+ receptions | 2/5 (40%) | 5/10 (50%) | 10/17 (59%) | 2/5 (40%) | 8/12 (67%) |
| 4+ receptions | 2/5 (40%) | 3/10 (30%) | 8/17 (47%) | 2/5 (40%) | 6/12 (50%) |
| 5+ receptions | 2/5 (40%) | 2/10 (20%) | 5/17 (29%) | 2/5 (40%) | 3/12 (25%) |
| 6+ receptions | 1/5 (20%) | 1/10 (10%) | 3/17 (18%) | 1/5 (20%) | 2/12 (17%) |
Counts are games reaching the threshold out of the games played in each window, with the receptions recorded. Samples are stated; a handful of games moves these rates quickly.
Averages and range
| Games | Played | Average | Median | Low | High | TGT/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4.2 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0 | 7 | 3.7 |
| Last 20 | 17 | 3.2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4.1 |
| 2026 season | 5 | 3.2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4.2 |
| 2025 season | 12 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 0 | 6 | 4.1 |
Splits
| Split | Games | Average | Median | 4+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10 | 3.9 | 4 | 6/10 (60%) |
| Away | 7 | 2.3 | 2 | 2/7 (29%) |
| Team won | 14 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 7/14 (50%) |
| Team lost | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1/3 (33%) |
Next game
- At the Las Vegas Raiders on October 18, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.
- Against tight ends this season the Las Vegas Raiders allow 6.4 receptions per game (8th most allowed of 32; league average 5.4; 5 games).
- This season the Las Vegas Raiders allow 236.4 passing yards per game (9th most allowed of 32).
- No stored game against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Game preview · Las Vegas Raiders stats and results
Opponent context and past meetings, not a prediction.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | Receptions | TGT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | @ LAR | W | 1 | 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs NE | L | 1 | 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 2 | 3 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vs DET | W | 7 | 8 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 5 | 6 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vs NYJ | W | 3 | 3 |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ CLE | W | 0 | 1 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ NE | W | 3 | 4 |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs CIN | W | 4 | 5 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ MIA | L | 2 | 3 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs KC | W | 6 | 6 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ CAR | W | 1 | 3 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs NE | L | 6 | 6 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs NO | W | 1 | 2 |
| Sep 18, 2025 | vs MIA | W | 5 | 6 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ NYJ | W | 4 | 6 |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs BAL | W | 4 | 4 |
About this page
- Regular-season games only, this season and last; playoff games are on the player page.
- Thresholds are statistical, not sportsbook lines. Current lines for Dalton Kincaid, with hit rates against the posted number, are in the app.
- Nothing here is a prediction, pick or projection.
This page contains no sportsbook prices or betting lines.
Keep researching
- Dalton Kincaid stats and game log
- Dalton Kincaid in StatsNext: Player Research with current props and hit rates against the line
- Dalton Kincaid receiving yards
- NFL receptions: every player
- NFL defense vs position: what each defense allows to QB, RB, WR and TE
- NFL target share: every receiver, season and last 3 games